Could Somalia use its economic might to bring down the EU?

Today? No. In 20-100 years, assuming Somalia reaches a level of political stability such that it can take advantage of its abundant economic resources (natural and non-natural), and assuming strong allies and trade partners around the world outside of the EU, then I’d say it’s possible. Especially as a potentially rogue country which doesn’t pay heed to an ever-increasing outcry for a halt in CO2 emissions and non-renewable energy dependence. Somalia will just be getting its start in oil production and it’s possible that most other developed nations  have stopped production due to national and international pressure rooted in climate change.

What many people don’t realize is that Somalia is speculated to have as much as 110 billion barrels of oil in off-shore and on-shore deposits. Given that’s true, when oil production optimizes it will thrust Somalia to being one of the top 10 oil producing countries in the world, and with access to markets in Africa by land, Europe, MidEast and Asia by sea (Somalia has an approx 3000 mile coastline, longest in Africa), oil alone will transform Somalia’s economic force. Note that Somalia’s government has earned approx $0 in global trade from the following geographically endowed resources: oil, natural gas, Arable farm land – 43rd largest country Somalia’s land area is approx 3x the United Kingdom, large fisheries, uranium, copper, and other precious metals. As the world dries up their sources of non-renewable resources, prices for some of those will surely rise. Now factor in Somalia’s future modest population (30-70 million at ~5% annual growth rates and UNICEF data) relative to its size, and the amount of living space it offers for immigrants in their future overcrowded home nations, and now we have that ever-elusive source of human capital beyond Somali natives and diaspora. Moreover, do a quick Google search of Somalia, and you’ll know why Italian tourists flocked to its flawless beaches which caress the Indian Ocean. Mogadishu was once called the pearl of Africa for its natural and urban beauty. You can expect money to flow from tourism, and a lot of it. Something I learned recently, kind of tangential but related: New York’s country sized trillion-dollar GDP is partially thanks to an extremely lucrative tourism industry (“in 2012, spending is estimated to have generated $92 billion in total business sales, including indirect and induced impacts” and “sustained 714,000 jobs with income of $29 billion” – source is this page on NY.gov), so don’t underestimate the power of that industry. 3000 miles of pretty beaches and a small friendly population will bring tourists and thrill-seekers like moths to a flame.

Thus, the future economic force may very well be there, and the application of it could manifest itself in covert subversive missions, funding of radical groups within countries, squeezing economic resources by not trading in Europe, or declaring war on EU as a whole based on whatever premise Somalia wants and invading straight up, annexing all EU lands.

Finally, the real question is why would Somalia ever have the desire to “bring down” the EU? Somalis aren’t ideologically or practically anarchists, I promise. And the EU doesn’t need help with its down fall, it’s doing just fine on its own anyways.